Week 10 – NFL Picks

Today’s the day of the dogs again. If you wanted to make a bunch of picks that seem extremely crazy, then you’ve come to the right place.

Games we love

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New York Jets (+6)

The Jets have been terrible this year. They’ve cycled through WR’s, QB’s and even the mascot. They’ve only covered once this year, in an epic Thursday night battle against the Patriots. The Steelers on the other hand have gotten 12 TD’s from Big Ben over the last 2 games. Surely, after today, he’ll have 18 TD’s after 3 games right? Do you really expect his continued pace or could possibly the Jets make this a game? Vote for the later…

The pick: Jets, take the points

Denver Bronco’s vs. Oakland Raiders (+11.5)

Peyton Manning is god. Why would you bet against god?

The pick: Raiders, take the points

Games we like

Atlanta Falcons vs. TB Buccaneers (+1.5)

The Falcons beat the Bucs on Thursday night 126-3, so covering a 1.5 pt spread should be relatively easy.

The pick: Bucs, take the points

St. Louis Rams (+7) vs. Arizona Cardinals

The Rams just beat the 49ers on the road, which isn’t enough to get them any respect. They travel for another division game and are 7 point dogs. Surely they can’t do it two weeks in a row!

The pick: Rams, take the points

NY Giants (+9) vs. Seattle Seahawks

The Giants have been terrible at covering the spread this season. The Seahawks have been as well. It doesn’t matter, the Seahawks are still at home and they haven’t lost there in like 4 years.

The pick: Giants, take the points

Great week, if you like taking the underdogs.

Good luck.

Today’s College Picks 11.08.14

After a week hiatus, we’re back to the regularly scheduled programming…

Today, we have three picks that we love, starting at 3:30 and ending tonight.

Game #1

WVU vs. Texas (+3.5)

If you’ve read this site since we started making picks, you’ll know that we love Dick Trickle, the QB of WVU. You also know that we love WVU and have bet on them the last couple of weeks. However, now they roll into Texas and we have a feeling that they’ll end up in a close one with the Longhorns. Most of America thinks they will blow them out…we beg to differ.

The pick: Take Texas and the points

Game #2

Alabama vs. LSU (+6.5)

All Alabama has to do to make the college football championship is win out. Surely they will roll into LSU and take care of business, Don’t be fooled, this is a decent LSU team.

The pick: LSU and the points

Game #3

Oregon vs. Utah (+8.5)

See the write up above and replace Alabama with Oregon and LSU with Utah.

The pick: Utah and the points

Three home dogs, three great college plays.

Good Luck.

NFL Week 8 picks

Games We Love

Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (+3)

The Colts are amazing. They come into this game on fire. They’ve covered the last 5 games and are rolling. Andrew Luck is the best QB in the NFL and he’s shredding defenses. They come off their complete dominance of the Bengals last week and nobody is stopping them. The Steelers come off a lucky win against the Texans on Monday night. If not for a short two minute stretch the Steelers would have lost…again. There is no way a suspect Steelers team keeps up with the surging Colts.

The pick: Steelers baby! Take the points.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Carolina Panthers (+5)

The Seahawks don’t appear to be the Seahawks of last season, but that doesn’t stop the general public from loving the team. The Panthers team is falling apart and they have no running game to speak of. This means they’ll have to air the ball out into the teeth of the Seahawks Legion of Boom. It will not be a pretty day for Cam Newton. Wilson and his legs should easily cover the five point spread even if they don’t look as dominating as they did last year.

The pick: Panthers, take the points. Another great home dog.

Games We Like

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-1)

The Ravens roll into Cincinnati looking for revenge for their week 1 embarrassment at the hands of the Bengals. The Bengals are definitely not the same team that they were in week 1, mostly because they are without dominating wide receiver, AJ Green. In addition, the offense is completely sputtering, after getting completely dominated by the Colts last week. Sense a pattern here?

The pick: Bengals, give the point, which is essentially a pick em game.

Green Bay Packers vs. New Orleans Saints (-1.5)

The Packers offense has been on fire since week 3 of the regular season. The Saints defense has not been. In what should be a high scoring affair, the Saints are somehow favored. Aaron Rodgers should be able to keep Cobb’s 85 game TD streak alive and well and blow out the Saints this week for their first home loss.

The pick: Saints, give the point and 1/2

Editor’s Note: 4-0 BABY!!!! Every pick correct.

Saturday College Picks – 10.25.14

Games We Love

Arizona vs. Washington State (+3.5)

Dude, Arizona, 2 short weeks ago, traveled to Oregon and beat the Ducks by 7! Now they are going to unranked Washington State and only have to win by 3.5?!?!?! Easy money…

The pick: Washington State, take the points

Editor’s Note: Arizona may be for real

Ole Miss vs. LSU (+3.5)

Ole Miss is on fire. First they beat Alabama to rocket to the top of the rankings and into the projected College Football Playoff. Now they get to take on an LSU team that recently got trounced on the road at Auburn and barely beat a terrible Florida Gator team. It seems like robbery to only be favored by 3.5. I’m sure Ole Miss will win by at least 30.

The pick: LSU, take the points

Editor’s Note: LSU TIGERS! Maybe Ole Miss was a little overrated

Games We Like

USC vs. Utah (+1)

USC, despite not being very good in the last couple of years, has always been a team that America likes to bet on. Utah, well, nobody thinks a college team playing in a crappy conference really measures up to a power school in the Pac 12. This should be an easy road game for the Trojans.

The pick: Utah, take the points

Editor’s Note: Go UTES!

Picks went 2-1 this week, which looks a lot more positive.

Week 7 NFL Picks

Games We Love

NY Giants (+4.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys

The NY Giants travel to Dallas fresh off getting absolutely embarrassed on Sunday Night Football by the Eagles. Now they have to take on (according to Michael Irvin) the “best team in the NFL right now”. The best team is not even favored by a touchdown, which means the Cowboys shouldn’t even break a sweat on Sunday, easily covering the spread that is much too low. I mean, the Cowboys should at least be 10 point favorites after being 10 point dogs traveling into Seattle and coming out with a win.

The pick: NY Football Giants, take the points

Editor’s Note: Nope, the Giants couldn’t do it

Cincinnati Bengals (+3) vs. Indianapolis Colts

The Bengals, after starting strong, have faltered the last two games. They’ve given up a gazillion points to the Patriots and the Panthers. Now they have to play the greatest offense outside of Denver. Andrew Luck is a machine and he should be able to throw TD’s at will. The Colts have covered the spread an amazing 5 out of 6 games thus far this year. Why are they only 3 point favorites, shouldn’t this line be at least 8.5?

The pick: Bengals, take the points

Editor’s Pick: HAHA. The Bengals couldn’t even score a point.

Games We Like

Miami Dolphins (+3) vs. Chicago Bears

It’s hard to figure this game out. What Dolphins team is going to show up in Chicago? On the flip side, the Bears offense is simply dominating teams, but they only have a 1-2 record in the last three. However, last week, in Atlanta, their defense finally stepped up to the plate, shutting down Ryan and Julio Jones. Now that the defense is playing like the offense, the Dolphins should have no chance. Bills barely beat the Bears in week 1, then dominated the Dolphins in week 2, therefore the Bears should mostly dominate the Dolphins in week 7. That sounds logical right?

The pick: Dolphins, take the points

Editor’s Note: Dolphins again! Now that’s more like it.

Seattle Seahawks vs. St. Louis Rams (+6.5)

The Rams haven’t covered a spread since Ronald Regan was president and they just got embarrassed on National television on Monday Night Football. Austin Davis completed like one pass in the second half. The Seahawks did get beat last week, so naturally, they are angry and are going to bring their best defense in football into St. Louis and tear some shit up! They traded their disgruntled WR to the Jets, so it should be smooth sailing for the defending World Champs.

The pick: Rams, take the points

Editor’s Note: BOOM! Seahawks didn’t see that one coming and nor did most of America

Games We Find Interesting

Atlanta Falcons (+6.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens

The Falcons just got beat at home, now they have to travel to Baltimore to play a very tough Ravens squad. Flacco threw a record 12 TD’s last game vs. Bucs. The Falcons secondary is just as bad as Tampa. Flacco could throw 15 in this game.

The pick: Falcons, take the points

Editor’s Note: Falcons got worked

Arizona Cardinals vs. Oakland Raiders (+3.5)

The Cardinals are only favored by 3.5 points on the road against a terrible Raiders squad. Doesn’t seem high enough right?

The pick: Raiders, take the points

Editor’s Note: Raider’s went back to being the Raiders

Good luck!

Final Count: Not a good week..2-4, hey that happens sometimes. The games we loved went 2-2. However, if you also count the Thursday night pick (ie. Jets), that’s 3-2, which in our game, makes you money.

This Weeks College Picks – 10.18.14

Games We Love

You’re going to notice something about all the games we love in college this week. Of course, they are all home underdogs about to face much superior (and in most cases ranked or formerly ranked) football teams. As you saw last week, we don’t care. There’s money to be made in not betting with what Joe Public thinks, but rather reading all the expert predictions and then doing exactly the opposite. On to this week’s picks.

UCLA vs. California (+7)

UCLA has been the Jekyll and Hyde team of the college football season. One week they are dominating opponents, the next week they are narrowly squeaking out wins and then the following week, they are getting trounced. Getting trounced is the most recent example, with a lackluster performance last week vs. the Ducks from Oregon. Now they show up as favorites on the road vs. their instate rivals. The thing is, Cal is not a good football team. They have narrowly won most of their games this season. Most recently, they got shellacked by a Washington squad at HOME who we will see later in this week’s picks.

The pick: Cal, take the points

Editor’s Note: Cal lost by 2

Nebraska vs. Northwestern (+6.5)

Another schizophrenic team rolls into Illinois as relative big favorites. Nebraska led by their all-American running back, has only lost one game this season and even though they were dominated for much of the game against Michigan State, they came roaring back to have a chance to win in the end. As such, nobody thinks the Wildcats will give them much of a game. Bo Pelini will surely roll.

The pick: Northwestern, take the points

Editor’s Note: Nortwestern got rolled after they were in the game at the start

Baylor vs. West Virginia (+7.5)

Mighty Baylor and their high octane offense rolls into West Virginia to take on Dick Trickle (my pet name for Clint Trickett, back when he played for FSU) and the upstart Mountaineers. Baylor of course is undefeated and ranked #4 in the nation. They are only giving 7 1/2 points on the road, which is surely a gift from the Vegas line makers. Baylor scored a gazillion points last week, going on a 100-0 run in the fourth quarter to come back and stun the TCU Horned Frogs. This probably won’t even be a contest.

The pick: West Virginia, gladly take the points

Editor’s Note: WVU won outright, Dick Trickle was sensational

Games We Like

Notre Dame vs. Florida State (-11.5)

The fine upstanding Catholics of the prestigious university of Notre Dame roll into Tallahassee to take on personified evil in rapist Jameis Winston and his merry band of thugs. For morality and the American way, we must see FSU vanquished from the ranks of the unbeaten and Mr. Winston groveling shamefully as Everett Golson displays what a true Heismann candidate should look and be like. I mean Mr. Golson has never signed anything in his life and Mr. Winston literally signs thousands of things for money. Assuming Mr. Winston plays in the game….

The pick: FSU, give the points, but say 4 “abba fathers” and 3 “hail Mary’s”

Editor’s Note: Easily the best game of the day, FSU won by 4 and did not cover

Michigan State vs. Indiana (+15)

Michigan State should just book their tickets to the Big Ten title game and save us all the trouble of watching them demolish their 6 remaining opponents.

The pick: Indiana, take the points

Editor’s Note: State looks like they will be a playoff team

Washington vs. Oregon (-20.5)

The Ducks just got beat at home two weeks ago and barely won on the road in UCLA last week. They are almost 3 touchdown favorites to a pretty decent Huskies team. The Huskies barely lost to a ranked Stanford Cardinal team! It’s safe to think they’ll lose, but probably only by a last second FG right?

The pick: The Ducks, give the points

Editor’s Note: Ducks won by 22

That will do it for the college slate this week. Stay tuned for the NFL picks coming later this weekend.

Editor’s Note: 3-3 this week, with games we love going 2-1

Thursday Night – Week 7 NFL Pick

NY Jets (+9.5) vs. NE Patriots

The Patriots are coming off their second straight dominant win. First dispatching the formerly undefeated Bengals and then going on the road and beating a supposedly tough Buffalo Bills squad. The bumbling Jets are well bumbling. Rex Ryan is feeling the coaching hot seat and Geno Smith is contemplating what it might be like to sell used cars with Josh Gordon. We are at the start of week 7 and there is only one team in the NFL this season who has yet to cover a spread. It’s of course, the NY Jets. They came within one Marty Morningwheg timeout of covering vs. the Packers in week 2, but instead of a cover, it led to a push. Naturally, nobody likes the Jets tonight…

The Pick: Jets, take the points

We might be temporarily delusional, I know, but the Jets have been awful for five games now. Only the Vikings have scored less points in their last 2 games than the Jets. We think that trend will end tonight (not the Jets actually scoring points because the weather is terrible, we mean the Jets covering), in a monsoon in New England.

Editor’s Note: J-E-T-S, JETS, JETS, JETS!!!! covered the spread, just like everyone knew they would right?

How’s this work?

Obviously, the biggest question that everyone wants to know is how this stuff works. It’s actually a pretty simple idea. The concept is that the public perception is generally wrong and wherever the majority of the public is putting their money, you want to put your money on the opposite side. We all know the casino’s in Vegas weren’t built by business men who love to pay out money, but rather rich business men who collected a lot of money from the gambling public. When 80% of bettors bet on one team to win a game and that team does win, who pays out the winnings? The gambling site/casino etc. Do you think it’s in their best interest to be on the side of paying the money out or on the side of collecting the money? Don’t you think the bookmakers would set a line to entice gamblers to bet on one side, so they can lose and then collect the majority of the bets on the other? If the favorite team always won, don’t you think everyone would just bet on the favorite every time? The opposite is also true, if the underdog won all the time, wouldn’t people just bet that way? Absolutely, which tells you that you’re never going to win with every bet, but if you choose the bets wisely, you can win most of the time. It’s just about what bets to place.

Obviously, we won’t predict every game right. We will have losing weeks and winning weeks. In addition, when we publish our picks, lines are still moving, bets are still coming in, so our analysis could be off. A good example is the Sunday night Philadelphia vs. NY Giants game. Early indications were that the Giants were the play because most of the public was taking the Eagles. However, during Sunday, money started to build on the Giants and by kickoff, most of the dollars were on the Giants, making the Eagles to team to bet on.

With that in mind, we have come up with the following hierarchy for classifying our bets.

1. Games We Love

These are games that show all the right indicators immediately. Public perception is definitely swayed on one side and we will almost certainly be placing a wager on these games at game time, unless there are late injuries or late unexpected line movements. In week 6 we bet both the college and NFL games that we loved.

2. Games We Like

These are games that seem to show the right indicators, but we need to study a little further to track line movements and how the money is being bet. We never bet all of these games or sometimes never bet any of these games. They show promise, but we might pass for a variety of reasons. Some of these games become games we love at game time. It just requires us to make sure the indicators moved correctly.

3. Games of Interest

These are games that are interesting because they could be great or the line might be set right, which means there is no play. These games have less of a chance for us to play them, but we still consider them because they have some potential.

Week 6 wrap up

In week 6, we ended up playing 3 plays on Saturday, both Mississippi games (which were games we loved) and the USC vs. #10 Arizona which emerged late as a great play because the public believed that Arizona (after knocking off Oregon the week prior) would easily handle the Trojans. The Trojans won and covered in a very compelling game.

We also ended up playing 5 NFL games, not counting Monday night. The Texans were an overwhelming play on Thursday night, but due to a missed FG by Bullock, did not cover the 3 points. The early Sunday plays were the Dolphins and Browns. The Dolphins line moved up to +3.5 just prior to game time, thus making that play a winner. Cleveland easily covered. The Sunday afternoon play was the Dallas game and the Sunday night play was the Eagles after the majority of the late money came in on the Giants. Excluding Monday night’s game, this leaves Mr. Sharp’s record at an outstanding 7-1.

Editor’s Note: St. Louis got blown out (but did have two chances late to tie) dropping the week 6 record to 7-2

Week 6 – NFL Picks

Games We Love

Packers vs. Dolphins (+3)

The Dolphins again enter week 6 as home dogs to the mighty Packers squad. The Packers, coming off a complete Thursday night shellacking of Minnesota on TNF, roll into SunLife Stadium on 10 days rest. Giving Aaron Rodgers extra rest is a recipe for destruction and the Packers are only giving 3 points which seems very low for a Packers offense that is absolutely cruising. Eddie Lacy finally woke up against the Vikings and the Dolphins are just more fodder in his way on the trail to absolute RB dominance. Expect the PACK to easily cover.

The Pick: Dolphins, take the points

Editor’s Note: The line actually moved to 3.5 just prior to game time, but at +3, this was a push…a lucky push, with Aaron Rodgers with a last second TD

SF 49ers vs. St. Louis Rams (+3.5)

The 49ers defense may not be as good as years past, but it’s still pretty damn good. The Rams led by Austin Davis (who is terrible) are going to get throttled. Zac Stacy is gimpy, Brian Quick is putting up numbers in garbage time and the Rams are one of the worst teams in the NFL. Frank Gore is revitalized and should run over and around the Rams pathetic front 4. To keep pace with the Seahawks, the 49ers need this game. Expect a Rams beat down!

The Pick: Rams, take the points

Editor’s Note: There used to be a time that MNF, home underdogs were 8000-12 ATS. Those times are over, but this is still an excellent time to take the underdog.

Editor’s Note #2: I guess this year is not that time…

Games We Like

Patriots vs. Bills (+3)

Last week, we bet the Patriots as home dogs. I mean, everyone knew the Patriots were going to get crushed by the Bengals and the Cincinnati D Line was going to throttle Brady. This week, we love the Joe Public overreaction to one good game by New England. All of a sudden, they hit the road as favorites to a pretty decent Buffalo squad that is now starting “unretired” QB Kyle Orton. Forget history that says Brady doesn’t play well in Buffalo. BRADY IS BACK AND HE IS GOD!!!!

The pick: Bills, take the points

Editor’s Note: Brady’s back

Ravens vs. Buccaneers (+3.5)

Nobody can get the 56-14 game out of their mind. The TB Bucs looked like a JV squad against the Falcons. Mike Glennon was not Lovie Smith’s first choice and if he’s backing up the great Josh McNown, he must be terrible. Ignore the fact, the Bucs have covered the spread the last two weeks…

The pick: Bucs, take the points

Editor’s Note: The Bucs are back

Steelers vs. Browns (-1.5)

How the fuck are the Browns favored in a football game? They are the Browns!!!!

The pick: Browns, give the points

Editor’s Note: The Browns not only won, they dominated start to finish

Cowboys (+9) vs. Seahawks

The defending SB champs, coming off a dominant road win vs. Washington where they should have scored another 3 TD’s if not for the officiating return home where they haven’t lost in 1,000 years because it’s 200 decibels in the stadium and the opposing team can’t play football in loud environments.

The pick: Cowboys, take the points

Editor’s Note: The Cowboys knocked off the World Champs

NY Giants (+2.5) vs. Eagles

The Eagles are wearing all black. The Eagles are unstoppable! Eli Manning is so done.

The pick: Giants, take the points

Editor’s Note: Eli’s back. What was interesting, is that the money moved from the Eagles to the Giants just prior to gametime, making the Eagles a much better play

Games we should love, but hate

Denver vs. NY Jets (+9)

This is the perfect setup. The Jets are terrible, the Bronco’s are awesome. We should be all over this game. The home dog Jet’s don’t get any more fleas than this….

Editor’s note: Geno made sure the Jets didn’t cover with a last second pick 6

The pick: Jets, take the points

Chargers vs. Raiders (+7)

See “The NY Jets”.

The pick: Raiders, take the points

Editor’s Note: David Carr > Geno Smith

Editor’s Note: We have instituted a perma-ban on the Raiders and the Jets until they show that they are actually competent NFL teams. Both dogs could win this week, but because they are both such a shit show, we’d rather just pass….

Lots of great plays this week.

Good luck!

Editor’s Note: 2-4-1, not a great week for the underdogs